Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
